Alarming graph shows why the next week is ‘CRUCIAL’ in NSW’s fight against coronavirus – as it’s revealed Dictator Dan’s disastrous lockdown will cost Victoria $6BILLION and wipe out 350,000 jobs
- The graph showed the daily change in case numbers over 14 days is increasing
- New South Wales’ average daily change is 2.5 cases in the positive as of Monday
- Leading epidemiologist said the next week for virus control in NSW was vital
- ‘Next week critical to see if another surge is coming,’ Professor McLaws said
- Warning Victoria’s extended lockdown could wipe $6billion off state economy
- Second lockdown ‘compounded’ damage done by shutdowns in April and May
A worrying graph shows New South Wales is teetering on the edge of another coronavirus outbreak, according to an expert, as it’s revealed Victoria’s extended lockdown could wipe $6billion off the economy.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison this week said the quality of contact tracing in NSW – which recorded nine new cases on Tuesday – was the nation’s ‘gold standard’.
But World Health Organisation adviser and Professor of Epidemiology at the University of NSW Professor Mary-Louise McLaws on Tuesday shared a reminder 14-day case totals in New South Wales are trending upwards.
The state’s average daily change in cumulative case numbers over a two-week period is 2.5 cases in the positive – a level similar to late July.
Two masked pedestrians are pictured in the Sydney CBD wearing face masks on Saturday. A concerning graph has shown New South Wales could be on the brink of another coronavirus outbreak
Closing down signage on a window of a retail store along Bourke Street Mall in Melbourne on Monday. Another 350,000 jobs are expected to be lost in Victoria by the end of September
By comparison the average daily change in cumulative case numbers in Victoria sits at minus 150 cases as of Monday.
‘Next week is critical in NSW to see if another surge is coming,’ Professor McLaws wrote on Twitter.
‘Wear a mask and continue good public health practices.’
KPMG analysis has meanwhile warned an increasing number of Victorian businesses are expected to fold after being forced to stay closed for up to two months as part of Premier Daniel Andrews’ controversial road map out of Stage Four restrictions.
An estimated 350,000 workers are expected to be made jobless in the three months to the end of September on top of the 250,000 jobs already lost to the pandemic, The Australian reported.
KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne said the second lockdown ‘compounded’ the damage done by shutdowns in April and May.
‘The likelihood is the downturn in economic activity in Victoria is going to negate the upturn elsewhere in the country, which will put the September quarterly result at virtually zero growth,’ Dr Rynne said.
Mr Andrews’ road map predicts Victorian businesses will not begin to reopen until at least October, which the research said could see a further $6billion to 8billion wiped off the economy.
Professor of Epidemiology at the University of NSW Professor Mary-Louise McLaws on Tuesday shared how 14-day case totals in New South Wales are trending upwards over the past two weeks
Chair of Qantas, Woodside and the AFL Commission, Richard Goyder, is urging politicians to be forthcoming about the medical advice being used to justify the restrictions.
‘It would be useful to understand the medical advice that governments are receiving and the context in which that advice has been asked for,’ he said.
The lockdown’s weekly cost to the national economy is now estimated to be $1billion per week, which means Victoria’s total economic damage could spike to $20billion by the end of the year.
Earlier on Tuesday, Daniel Andrews hit back at Prime Minister Scott Morrison after he criticised the decision to keep Melbourne in Stage Four lockdown for another two weeks.
A healthcare worker speaks to a driver at a drive-in COVID-19 testing site set up in the Bondi in Sydney’s eastern suburbs on August 31. NSW recorded nine new cases of the deadly virus on Tuesday
The Victorian premier has been slammed by the public, businesses and politicians over his refusal to reopen the collapsed economy.
‘The plan that was outlined yesterday, I hope, is a worst-case scenario,’ Mr Morrison said on Monday, a day after Mr Andrews released his highly-anticipated ‘roadmap to recovery’.
‘I see it as a starting point in terms of how this issue will be managed in the weeks and months ahead in Victoria.’
Mr Andrews fired back at Mr Morrison on Tuesday, saying ‘there’s just no place for politics’ when tackling COVID-19.
‘This virus will not be defeated by playing politics. I’d say to the Prime Minister the worst case scenario is being open for three or four weeks and then closed down again,’ he said.
‘That’s the worst case scenario. Absolutely that’s the worst case scenario and I’ll continue to work closely with the Prime Minister and his team.
‘There would be 15 minutes of happiness and then we’d be back in lockdown and arguably facing an even worse situation than we face now.
‘If I can be so bold as to have a judgement on these things – I think I’ve got some insight into what’s happening here in our state.’
On Monday morning, the premier said he is open to changing the plan.
‘If we saw things change dramatically then we would obviously remodel the whole thing,’ he told Melbourne radio station 3AW.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Monday said he hoped Daniel Andrews’ lockdown plan was a ‘worst-case scenario’
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews fired back at Mr Morrison on Tuesday, saying ‘there’s just no place for politics’ when tackling COVID-19
VICTORIAN CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER DEFENDS STATE’S CONTACT TRACING
Victoria is ramping up its much-maligned coronavirus contact tracing system amid more criticism from the federal government.
As Premier Daniel Andrews hit back at the prime minister, chief health officer Brett Sutton also defended the state’s contact tracing following comments from federal Health Minister Greg Hunt.
Victoria had eight more deaths on Tuesday, but 55 new cases meant five-straight days under 100.
The premier said a team of officials would visit NSW later this week to look at that state’s contact tracing system, which the prime minister has described as ‘gold standard’.
Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has defended the state’s contact tracing amid a wave of criticism about the system’s capabilities compared to NSW
Melbourne will also have five suburban response teams soon to help with contact tracing.
Asked if the NSW contact tracing system could have contained Victoria’s hotel quarantine outbreak, Mr Hunt said: ‘Yes, that’s my belief.’
Professor Sutton told 3AW in response: ‘I wish the system were as robust then as I know it is now.’
‘But I can’t say that it would have been stopped with a NSW system, by any means.’
‘If the data was to fundamentally change then we would be standing up making different announcements.’
Mr Andrews also said he was not trying to eliminate the virus but suppress it enough that contact tracing teams can identify and isolate the contacts of every case.
He said after lockdown is lifted there will be cases but they would not necessarily mean a return to harsh restrictions, saying the state was not pursuing unrealistic eradication but controllable numbers.
‘A strategy where you’re trying to eradicate it would mean that if you had one case you would go back into lockdown. That’s the difference,’ he said.
The Victorian premier has been slammed by the public, businesses and politicians over his refusal to reopen the economy
‘This thing, it moves so fast, so silently, that it can get away from you so fast.
‘You’ve got to beat it first then you can find that new normal.’
On Monday Victoria announced nine more deaths from coronavirus, taking the state toll to 675 and the national figure to 762.
But there was some good news for the state, with new case numbers dropping significantly on Monday to 41.
Get tested immediately
Anyone who attended the venue at these times is considered close contacts and is directed to get tested and isolate for 14 days.
Plus Fitness, 47 Beecroft Rd Epping on September 5 between 9am – 10:15am
Source: NSW Health
It is Victoria’s lowest daily case number since June 26.
Three of NSW’s nine new infections reported on Tuesday were returned travellers in hotel quarantine, while five were linked to known outbreaks.
But NSW Health revealed the origin of one new infection from south eastern Sydney remains a mystery.
Three of the locally acquired cases have been traced back to Concord Hospital, including two healthcare workers, and a visitor.
State health authorities have now issued an alert for several venues across Sydney.
Meanwhile, another case at Kincoppal Rose Bay School of the Sacred Heart in Sydney’s exclusive eastern suburbs has been linked to the CBD cluster which has now reached 66.
Two year seven students at the prestigious Catholic girl’s high school also tested positive on Monday.
Today’s patient was a boarding student living on the premises.
All boarding operations have now been suspended with students sent home and staff instructed to self-isolate.
The CBD cluster was also the source of a another case contracted through a household contact.
Pictured: Kincoppal Rose Bay School of the Sacred Heart in Sydney’s exclusive eastern suburbs where another COVID-19 case has been detected
There’s now growing concern in the state after clusters emerged at two Sydney hospitals in recent days
More than 100 health workers are now in isolation waiting on coronavirus tests.
Three healthcare workers at Sydney’s Concord Repatriation General Hospital and Liverpool Hospital tested positive on Monday.
The health staff were diagnosed during investigations into an emergency department doctor, reported on Saturday, who worked at the two hospitals while potentially infectious.
MELBOURNE’S ROADMAP OUT OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN – WHAT YOU WILL BE ABLE TO DO AND WHEN:
Step one: The first step will come in to place on September 13.
Step two: The second step will be implemented when Melbourne has 30-50 COVID-19 cases a day on average over the past 14 days. The aim is for this to come into place on September 28.
Step three: The move to step three will occur when there is a daily statewide average of five new cases over the past 14 days. The aim is for this to come into place on October 26.
Step four: The move to step four will come when there have been no new COVID-19 cases in the past 14 days. The aim is for this to come into place on November 23.
COVID Normal: After 28 days of no new COVID-19 cases, things will return to normal.
Step one – 11.59pm on September 13:
– Curfew will be eased to 9pm-5am
– People can still only leave home for the four reasons (shopping, exercise, work and care or medical attention)
– Public gatherings increased to two people, or a household, for a maximum of two hours
– Singles can have one nominated person to their home as part of the ‘singles social bubble’
– Childcare and early educators to remain closed
– Schools will continue to learn remotely unless they have exemptions
– Adult education to continue to be done remotely, unless they have exemption
– Only go to work if you are in a permitted industry
– Cafes and restaurants will continue with take away only
– Retail businesses will remain open for essential shopping, with others only operating with click and collect
– Only one person per household can do the essential shopping
Step two – September 28:
– Public gatherings increase again to five people from a maximum of two households
– Childcare and early educators can re-open
– Schools to continue with remote learning, but Prep to Grade Two and Year 11 and Year 12 students will gradually return to class in Term 4
– There will be an increase to permitted workplaces
Step three – October 26:
– Curfew is no longer in place
– There are no restrictions on leaving home
– Public gatherings increase to 10 people together outdoors
– A ‘household bubble’ will be introduced, so five people from one house can visit another
– Remote learning to continue, but Grades 3 to Year 11 can gradually return to class
– Adult education to continue to be done remotely, but hands on classes will see a phased return to onsite
– Work from home is encouraged
– Up to 10 people can eat together at restaurants and cafes, with the majority of tables outdoor
– Retail shops to reopen, with hairdresses operating under safety measures but beauty stores to remain closed
– Real estate agents can conduct private inspections by appointment
– The one person per household limit on shopping is to be revoked
Step four – November 23:
– Public gatherings to increase to 50 people outdoors
– Up to 20 visitors can attend a home at any one time
– All adult education will return to onsite with safety measures in place
– Groups limited to 20 indoors and a maximum of 50 patrons per venue
– All retail stores to reopen, while real estate agents can operate with safety measures and by keeping a record of attendants
Step five – COVID normal:
– Public gatherings have no restriction
– There will also be no restriction on visitors to homes
– Phased return to onsite work for work from home workers
– Schools to reopen as normal
– Restrictions on hospitality removed, but venues to continue keeping records