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How Did Trump Do in Counties That Backed Him in 2016?

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How Did Trump Do in Counties That Backed Him in 2016?

President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. won the popular vote by more than five million — and his margin is expected to grow as states finish counting. Still, results so far show that President Trump’s support remained strong in most of the counties that voted for him in 2016. Here’s how.


How Trump counties shifted by demographics

The 2020 shifts in Mr. Trump’s 2016 counties parallel many of the demographic trends that are playing out across the country.

Mr. Trump’s strongest supporters four years ago tended to live in counties with fewer college-educated residents. These counties solidly backed Mr. Trump again in 2020, while many of those with a more educated populace shifted toward Mr. Biden.


Note: Based on the 2018 five-year American Community Survey. Counties with more educated residents include ones where the share of their residents aged 25 or older who attained a bachelor’s degree or higher is higher than the national average. Counties with less educated residents include ones where the share of their residents aged 25 or older who did not go to college is higher than the national average.

The same divide can be seen in the votes from suburban and rural America. Mr. Trump maintained his strong support in many of the country’s less-populous, rural counties while suburban voters collectively swung toward Mr. Biden.


Note: Based on a classification developed by the economist Jed Kolko, which takes into account household density of counties within metro areas.

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