According to Galaxy Digital, Bitcoin has increased by 74% to nearly $59,000 at this point, and that amount does not account for “second-order effects.”
Charles Yu, a research associate at Galaxy Digital, predicted in a blog post on October 24 that the first year following the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs will see a total addressable market size of $14.4 trillion. Using gold ETFs as a benchmark, he evaluated the possible price effect of fund inflows to Bitcoin ETF products to arrive at the 74% estimate.
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Yu predicted that the price of Bitcoin will rise 6.2% in the first month following the establishment of an ETF, then gradually decline to climb 3.7% per month by the 12th month.
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Yu employed September 30th pricing data for Bitcoin; nonetheless, a 74.1% gain in Bitcoin’s current price would bring it to $59,200.
In a post from October 19, Markus Thielen, head of research at digital asset financial services company Matrixport, arrived at a same conclusion, predicting that Bitcoin might increase to $42,000 to $56,000 in the event that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application is accepted.
According to Yu, the addressable market size of US Bitcoin ETFs is expected to grow to $26.5 trillion in the second year following debut and $39.6 trillion in the third.
Yu admitted that its price prediction might be affected if spot Bitcoin ETFs were denied or delayed.
He did point out that the predictions were still modest and did not account for “second-order effects” from the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
“We anticipate that other global/international markets will soon follow the U.S. in approving + providing comparable Bitcoin ETF offerings to a broader investor base,” Yu stated.
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Citing ETF inflows, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, and “the possibility that rates have peaked or will peak in the near term,” he continued, “2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin.”
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